Peak season may be defined by the holiday rush in November and December, but for brands, the real work starts months earlier; and 2025 is already shaping up to be one for the books. This article is Part One of a three-part series drawn from our full 2025 Peak Season Predictions eBook.
In May, a Reddit user asked, “when does peak season start?” While it seems like a straightforward question, it’s not.
Yes, peak season traditionally takes place the last week of November, beginning the day after Thanksgiving and running throughout December. However, peak season for brands starts much earlier than that. Why? Because it’s an extravaganza of planning, inventory placement, promotion, order fulfillment, shipping, and post-peak returns. In other words, peak season begins in the summer early and lasts for months.
But more than that, each peak season is unique and often shaped by the economy, consumer behaviors, and current industry trends. As a result, no two peak seasons are the same, including what brands need to do to plan, prep, and execute.
Importance of peak season for brands
Smart retailers know the increased demand of peak season can shape success for the overall year. It provides an opportunity for higher profits, a stronger market position, and improved customer satisfaction. But only when brands plan and perform well. If they don’t…well, it can be an operational and reputational nightmare.
Partners (like your 3PL) are critical during this time; and if a retail brand isn’t properly supported, particularly in logistics, it can lead to disaster.
The upcoming peak season 2025 is setting up to be an interesting one. Given the retail industry’s current disruptions, fluctuating sentiment, and corresponding consumer behavior, it will be essential to stay abreast of current events and emerging trends for better planning.
This eBook will serve as a guide to the upcoming season, including the economic outlook, predicted trends, and expected behavior based on reputable sources within the retail industry.
Quick recap of peak season 2024
For over a decade, Adobe has tracked online holiday shopping and peak season trends. In 2024, Adobe found:
- Record online spend: $241.4 billion online sales (Nov 1–Dec 31, 2024), up 8.7% YoY.
- Mobile commerce milestone: $131.5 billion mobile spend, 54.5% share of online sales (record high).
- Christmas Day: 65% of online sales via mobile.
- Buy now, pay later (BNPL) growth: $18.2 billion BNPL spend for the season and a Cyber Monday record of $991.2 million in BNPL purchases in a single day.
- Discount-driven spending: Record-level discounts for TVs, appliances, sporting goods. Promotions started earlier (Oct–Dec) and generated $2.25 billion incremental spend from price-sensitive shoppers.
- Category leaders: Toys, video games, and electronics drove sales. Hot items were LEGO sets, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, Bluetooth headphones, Dyson Airwrap, espresso machines, Madden NFL 2025, and fitness trackers.
- Fulfillment trends: Curbside pickup peaked Dec 23 at 37.8% of orders and expedited shipping spiked late season to avoid delays.
A Visa analysis offered additional insights, especially around in-store shopping:
- Overall retail growth: U.S. holiday retail spend (all payment types) rose 4.8% YoY, showing resilience and consumer confidence.
- In-store dominance: 77% of holiday payment volume happened in-store; only 23% online. In-store retail spend grew 4.1% vs. 1.6% last year, indicating shoppers are returning for physical experiences.
- Online still growing: Online spend grew 7.1% (slower than last year’s 10.3%), showing ongoing strength but a moderation from pandemic-era spikes.
- Visa’s category sales leaders were clothing and accessories, electronics, and building materials/home improvement.
2025 Economic outlook and consumer behavior predictions
The 2024 peak season data still holds valuable insights for peak season 2025. Based on what occurred last year and considering current issues, policy changes, and announcements, brands can begin to shape their peak season strategy.
Consumer sentiment snapshot
The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers diligently watches the economy and consumer sentiment. The most recent reports found in July 2025, U.S. consumer sentiment improved marginally for the second consecutive month, rising to 61.7 from 60.7 in June, but remains well below July 2024’s reading of 66.4.
Current economic conditions jumped nearly 5% to their highest level since February, reflecting a stronger perception of present-day financial health. However, the index of consumer expectations slipped slightly, indicating persistent skepticism about the future.
Gains in sentiment were concentrated among stockholders, partially offset by declines among non-stockholding households. Notably, sentiment improvements were consistent across political affiliations, suggesting a shared, albeit modest, lift in confidence.
Inflation expectations showed a more pronounced improvement. Year-ahead expectations fell to 4.5%, their lowest level since February 2025, and long-run expectations dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since January 2025. These declines follow several months of easing after a sharp climb earlier in the year.
While inflation uncertainty remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, measures such as the interquartile range and the share of consumers expecting extremely high “tail” inflation have moderated from April’s peaks. Still, long-run expectations remain above late 2024 levels, signaling that concerns over inflation’s trajectory have not fully dissipated.
Thoughts on the coming months:
- If inflation expectations continue to decline and current conditions hold steady, consumer sentiment is likely to trend upward modestly in the coming months, even if long-term optimism lags. For peak season 2025, this could translate into cautiously higher discretionary spending, especially for promotions and value-driven offers, though lingering economic skepticism may keep shoppers focused on deals and essentials.
- However, if new tariff announcements or the end of the de minimis provision push up import costs, consumers may quickly revise inflation expectations higher, reversing recent sentiment gains. This could lead to more cautious peak season spending, with shoppers delaying purchases or concentrating even more heavily on deep discounts.
This was just the beginning. Dive deeper into peak season trends, consumer insights, and proven strategies by downloading the full eBook:
