Peak season may still see its largest order spikes between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but the operational work starts months earlier. This article is Part 1 of a three-part series drawn from Kase’s Peak Predictions: What’s in Store for 2026 eBook, focused on the economic signals, consumer behavior, and planning milestones retailers should watch heading into Peak Season 2026.
The busiest shopping season of the year begins well before customers start filling their carts.
While retailers may still see their largest order spikes between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the operational work starts months earlier. Long before shoppers begin browsing gift guides, retailers and their fulfillment partners are building forecasts, placing inventory orders, negotiating carrier capacity, finalizing promotional calendars, and preparing fulfillment networks for increased demand.
Kase’s 2026 Peak Season Retailer Sentiment survey highlights the challenge ahead. While 93% of retail logistics leaders expect demand to increase over 2025, 79% say they are likely or very likely to be forced into reactive decisions once volume spikes. That concern persists despite 96% of respondents starting their peak planning earlier this year.
The result is a season defined by a unique tension; confidence is high, but pressure is higher.
Mike Venditti, VP of Fulfillment at Kase, said, “The defining trend for 2026 is confidence under pressure. Retailers expect stronger demand, but every extra order has to move through a tighter cost, carrier, and inventory environment.”
Peak season is more than a holiday rush
Peak season often carries an outsized impact on annual performance.
A strong season is beneficial, from driving revenue and increasing customer acquisition to improving loyalty and creating momentum heading into the next year. A weak season does the opposite, especially when stockouts, delivery delays, or inaccurate inventory reach customers at the exact moment expectations are highest.
Add to that, peak season has grown beyond being a simple volume event. Retailers are managing more of everything: channels, delivery options, marketplaces, return expectations, and cost pressure.
Kase’s survey shows that retail leaders understand the stakes; and 61% are very confident in their ability to meet 2026 peak demand, even as many describe their fulfillment networks as somewhat complex. High confidence is not necessarily a problem, but confidence without operational proof can create risk.
The strongest peak plans are built around the same core question: Where could volume, cost, inventory, or customer expectations break the current operational system?
Peak Season 2025: Key Takeaways
Peak season 2025 delivered record online spending while reinforcing several trends that are likely to shape retail strategy in 2026.
Final 2026 holiday forecasts are not yet available. This recap uses the most current confirmed 2025 holiday data available and should be revised once 2026 forecasts are released.
1. Digital commerce reached new heights
Adobe reported that U.S. online holiday spending from November 1 through December 31, 2025 reached $257.8 billion, up 6.8% year over year. That made 2025 the first quarter-trillion-dollar online holiday season.¹ Mobile continued to take a larger share of shopping behavior. Adobe found that mobile spending reached $145.2 billion during the 2025 holiday season, up 10.7% year over year, accounting for 56.4% of online holiday sales. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) also grew, reaching $20 billion in online holiday spending, up 9.8% year over year.
2. AI became part of the shopping journey
AI-assisted shopping (agentic commerce) also became more visible. Adobe found that AI-driven traffic to retail sites increased 693.4% year over year during the 2025 holiday season. That does not mean every shopper is handing holiday decisions to AI, but it does suggest that product discovery is widening beyond search engines, social feeds, and marketplace rankings.
3. Growth didn’t eliminate consumer caution
NRF’s Retail Monitor showed that 2025 holiday sales grew 4.1% over 2024, landing near the high end of NRF’s forecast range.² Deloitte’s 2025 holiday research also showed the tension inside that growth; shoppers were still planning to participate in the season, but many were doing so with more caution, more deal-seeking behavior, and tighter budgets.³
4. Retailers largely executed successfully
Operationally, the 2025 season went well for many retail teams. Kase’s peak season survey found that 35% of organizations exceeded peak season expectations in 2025 and 62% met expectations, which created a strong baseline. But it also raised the bar. Strategies that worked at 2025 volumes may not hold under 2026 demand, especially if cost pressure and supply chain volatility intensify.
2026 economic outlook and consumer behavior predictions
This section is written before the full 2026 holiday forecast cycle. It uses economic signals from May and June 2026, consumer sentiment data, and current inflation and energy indicators.
Consumer sentiment snapshot
Consumers are still spending, but the mood is cautious.
The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers reported that consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 in May 2026, down from April and well below the prior year. The same report noted that cost of living concerns remain high, with 57% of consumers citing cost of living as a key concern.⁴
Inflation expectations are also elevated. The University of Michigan reported year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.8% in May 2026, compared with 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict escalated. Long-run inflation expectations also increased to 3.9%.
McKinsey’s 2026 U.S. consumer research points in a similar direction. Consumer optimism declined to 35%, the lowest level in two years, while the cost of living remained the top concern. McKinsey also found that consumers are pulling back on discretionary categories, with many expecting to spend less on nonessential purchases.⁵
Peak season will not disappear because consumers are cautious. However, spending is likely to become more selective. Shoppers may still buy gifts, apparel, beauty, electronics, food, home goods, and seasonal products, but they will compare prices, seek promotions, rely on flexible payment options, and wait for value signals before committing.
KASE INSIGHT: Consumers are expected to spend during Peak Season 2026, but many will be more selective, price-conscious, and promotion-driven than in previous years.
Inflation, fuel, and the Strait of Hormuz
The cost picture heading into 2026 peak season is more complicated than a simple “prices are higher” story.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1% in May 2026. Final demand goods rose 2.8%, the largest increase since December 2009, driven heavily by energy. Gasoline prices jumped 23.4%, and diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins, industrial chemicals, and natural gas liquids also increased.⁷
That matters for retail operations because fuel and petroleum-linked inputs drive many peak season costs. Parcel and freight rates can be affected by fuel surcharges. Plastic resins are used in poly mailers, protective packaging, flexible packaging, tape, labels, and certain product packaging. Chemical and energy inputs can also ripple into corrugate production, manufacturing, and warehousing costs.
The Strait of Hormuz adds another layer of risk. Sean Kim, VP of Parcel and Ecommerce Experience at Kase said, “Every day is a roller coaster right now. Oil prices may move quickly when headlines change, but that relief does not always show up right away at the package level. Kase is monitoring the situation constantly because fuel pressure, carrier behavior, and peak surcharges can change the cost picture fast.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration describes the Strait of Hormuz as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, with 2024 oil flows averaging about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.⁹ In its June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA assumed the Strait would be closed to most traffic in the near term and projected Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in June and July. EIA also projected wholesale diesel and jet fuel prices to rise by more than 60% in 2026, compared with its pre-conflict February outlook.¹⁰
Reuters has also reported that the energy price surge is increasing costs tied to chemicals, plastics, manufacturing, and transportation.¹¹
KASE INSIGHT: Even with the current circumstances, peak season won’t be automatically disrupted. But it does mean retailers should treat packaging, fuel, shipping costs, and carrier reliability as planning variables rather than fixed assumptions.
What this could mean heading into peak
If consumer sentiment stays weak and input costs remain high, peak season 2026 may be defined by a difficult balance: shoppers will expect value, while retailers will have less room to absorb shipping, packaging, and promotion costs.
This could lead to:
• Earlier promotions designed to spread demand over a longer period
• More targeted discounting rather than broad markdowns
• Higher free shipping thresholds
• More bundled offers to protect average order value
• Slower delivery promises on non-urgent orders
• Greater use of BOPIS, curbside, and regional inventory placement
• More scrutiny of packaging cost, dimensional weight, and parcel zones
Kase’s survey already shows this shift in motion. Eighty-two percent of retail leaders expect rising transportation and fuel costs to erode peak margins, and 80% say shipping costs significantly influence promotional strategy.
Peak season 2026: Key dates and planning milestones
Final Amazon, marketplace, carrier, and holiday inventory deadlines will be updated once each platform releases 2026 peak requirements. The milestones below are built for planning purposes.
| Date/timeframe | Milestone | Notes and actions |
| June to July | Peak readiness audit | Review fulfillment capacity, inventory accuracy, carrier mix, packaging costs, return workflows, and system gaps. Kase survey data shows inventory accuracy, carrier performance, and order status are top operational priorities to address before peak. |
| July | Forecast and promo planning | Share preliminary forecasts with fulfillment partners. Build scenarios for best-case, expected, and high-volume surge. |
| July to August | Carrier capacity conversations | Lock primary carrier strategy and test backup carrier plans. 90% of organizations say they have formal backup carrier plans, but those plans should be tested before peak periods. |
| August | Packaging and cost-to-serve review | Model fuel, packaging, dimensional weight, and zone costs before finalizing promotional offers. |
| Late August to September | Inventory placement | Decide which SKUs should sit closer to demand centers. Kase found 93% of retail leaders are repositioning inventory closer to demand centers to reduce peak risk. |
| September | Marketplace and retail compliance review | Confirm routing guides, marketplace requirements, EDI needs, packaging specs, retailer deadlines, and FBA or marketplace receiving windows. |
| Late September to early October | Early holiday campaigns | Prepare for early shoppers, gift guides, loyalty offers, and pre-peak promotions. |
| October | Peak operations dry run | Test order routing, carrier selection, exception visibility, customer notifications, and return workflows. |
| November 26, 2026 | Thanksgiving | Finalize surge labor, cutoffs, carrier pickup schedules, and customer service staffing. |
| November 27, 2026 | Black Friday | Monitor real-time order flow, inventory depletion, pick/pack performance, and carrier exceptions. |
| November 30, 2026 | Cyber Monday | Prepare for high online order volume and rapid SKU-level demand shifts. |
| Early to mid-December | Delivery promise management | Communicate shipping deadlines clearly. Shift messaging toward expedited, regional, BOPIS, or local pickup options where available. |
| December 21 to 24 | Last-minute fulfillment | Increase focus on fast-moving SKUs, local inventory, curbside, and customer communication. |
| December 26 to early January | Returns peak begins | Activate returns workflows, exchange incentives, restock prioritization, and refund processing standards. |
Planning early does not eliminate peak season risk, but it gives retailers more time to make better decisions before pressure builds. For the full set of 2026 peak season predictions, fulfillment risks, and 3PL planning recommendations, download the full Peak Predictions: What’s in Store for 2026 eBook.
References:
- Adobe, Holiday Shopping Report: https://business.adobe.com/resources/holiday-shopping-report.html
- NRF, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor December 2025 holiday spending: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-s-december-data-shows-strong-holiday-season-spending
- Deloitte, 2025 Holiday Retail Survey: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/holiday-retail-sales-consumer-survey.html
- University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
- McKinsey, The State of the U.S. Consumer: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
- CNN, U.S. PPI wholesale inflation May 2026: https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/economy/us-ppi-wholesale-inflation-may
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index News Release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
- Reuters, U.S. producer prices increase more than expected in May amid jump in energy costs: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-producer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-may-amid-jump-energy-costs-2026-06-11/
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
- Reuters, Iran war is driving up the cost of the shopping cart: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/OIL-CONSUMERS/akpeyynmypr/
