PEAK SEASON 2025

Peak Season Resource Center

Peak season is here. Spending is still strong, but shoppers are playing it smart. With spending projected to slow and consumers prioritizing value over volume, this year’s winners will be the brands that deliver exceptional experiences: fast, reliable fulfillment, transparent communication, and smart inventory planning.

Key dates & BFCM countdown

Use this calendar to align campaigns, inventory, and fulfillment with the biggest shopping moments of the season.

00 Days
00 Hours
00 Minutes
00 Seconds
Nov 27

Black Friday

Coordinate extra pick/pack shifts with your 3PL for the volume surge.

Nov 30

Cyber Monday

Prepare for one of the largest online order volumes of the year.

Dec 1

FBA Christmas Inventory Deadline

Ensure inventory arrives by this date to protect Prime badge readiness for Christmas orders.

Late Nov – Dec 24

Omnichannel Focus

Increase same-day, next-day, and BOPIS/curbside options for last-minute shoppers.

Dec 24–25

Christmas Day

Monitor post-holiday return volumes and ensure reverse logistics workflows are ready.

Dec 26 – Jan 5

Returns Peak

Use 3PL reverse logistics capacity to process returns quickly and restock high-velocity SKUs.

Confidence vs reality: What retailer leaders expect

Retail and ecommerce leaders are optimistic about peak season 2026, but optimism alone won’t prevent disruptions. While demand forecasts and confidence levels remain strong, many organizations still anticipate operational challenges once volume surges. The question isn’t whether demand will increase, it’s whether fulfillment networks are prepared to scale with it.

93%
expect peak season demand to increase
61%
are very confident in their ability to meet demand
79%
expect to make reactive decisions once volume spikes

The gaps keeping retail leaders up at night

Peak season risk isn’t limited to one area of the business. Inventory, labor, transportation, and forecasting challenges are all competing for attention as retailers prepare for higher demand. Here’s where leaders see the greatest operational risk heading into peak season 2026.

Inventory imbalance
The #1 operational fear 52%
Labor shortages
46%
Cost spikes
39%
Carrier delays
37%
Inaccurate forecasts
34%
Systems outages
32%
Returns overload
32%
Supplier delays
29%
Weather disruptions
21%

What retailers are doing to protect margins

Retailers aren’t relying on a single tactic to protect margins. Instead, they’re combining inventory, shipping, fulfillment, and promotional strategies to control costs while maintaining the customer experience. Here’s where leaders are focusing their efforts heading into peak season 2026.

Smarter inventory placement
The #1 defense lever 59%
Rate shopping
50%
Bundled fulfillment
45%
Selective promotions
41%
Delivery promise resets
40%

What retailers need from 3PLs in 2026

Peak season success depends on more than inventory and labor planning. Retail leaders increasingly expect their 3PL partners to play a strategic role in managing risk, improving visibility, and supporting operational agility. These are the capabilities retailers say matter most as they prepare for another year of growing demand.

59%

Carrier diversification

Retailers need partners that can help reduce transportation risk by supporting multiple carrier options before peak volume hits.

52%

Inventory accuracy

Accurate inventory data helps retailers avoid stockouts, overstock, and costly fulfillment decisions during peak season.

49%

Real-time visibility

Leaders need order, inventory, and shipment visibility that supports faster decisions when exceptions occur.

41%

Systems integration

Connected systems help synchronize operations across ecommerce, retail, marketplace, and fulfillment workflows.

Key carrier peak surcharges (2025)

Peak season surcharges vary widely by carrier and service level, making it essential for brands to plan around them. Review the latest adjustments below to protect margins and avoid unexpected costs. Get the full guide here.

Surcharge Name Services Affected Charge Per Package Effective dates
Additional Handling U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $8.25 to $10.80 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Large Package Surcharge U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $90.50 to $107 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Over Maximum Limits U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $485 to $540 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Demand Surcharge UPS Ground Residential, Air and Ground Saver packages $0.40 to $2.05 Oct 26, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Demand Surcharge* Certain UPS Ground Residential, Air Residential, Air Commercial and Ground Saver packages for qualifying customers $0.40 to $8.75 Oct 26, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Surcharge Name Services Affected Charge Per Package Effective dates
Additional Handling Surcharge U.S. Package Services, FedEx International Ground shipments $8.25 to $10.90 Sept 29, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Oversize Charge U.S. Package Services, FedEx International Ground shipments $90 to $108.50 Sept 29, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Ground Unauthorized Package Charge FedEx Ground, FedEx Home Delivery and FedEx International Ground shipments $490 to $545 Sept 29, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Demand Surcharge FedEx First Overnight, Priority Overnight, Standard Overnight, 2Day, 2Day A.M., Express Saver (excluding One Rate packages) $1.05 to $2.10 Oct 27, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Demand Surcharge FedEx Ground residential shipments, FedEx Home Delivery residential shipments $0.40 to $0.65 Oct 27, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Demand Surcharge FedEx Ground Economy Package Services $2.20 to $3.55 Oct 27, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Demand — Residential Delivery Charge* Ground, Home Delivery, First Overnight, Priority Overnight, Standard Overnight, 2Day, 2Day A.M., Express Saver (excluding One Rate packages) $1.55 to $8.75 Oct 27, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026
Surcharge Name Services Affected Charge Per Package Effective dates
Additional Handling U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $8.25 to $10.80 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Large Package Surcharge U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $90.50 to $107 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Over Maximum Limits U.S. domestic, U.S. import and U.S. export shipments $485 to $540 Sept 28, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Demand Surcharge UPS Ground Residential, Air and Ground Saver packages $0.40 to $2.05 Oct 26, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Demand Surcharge* Certain UPS Ground Residential, Air Residential, Air Commercial and Ground Saver packages for qualifying customers $0.40 to $8.75 Oct 26, 2025 – Jan 17, 2026
Demand Surcharge Criteria  Oct 26–Nov 22, 2025  Nov 23–Dec 27, 2025  Dec 28, 2025–Jan 17, 2026 
Per-Package Demand Surcharge  $0.40  $0.60  $0.40 
Additional Handling  $8.25  $10.80  $8.25 
Large Packages  $90  $107  $90 
Extra Heavy Package Fee  $485  $540  $485 

Top peak challenges to look out for

Peak season magnifies operational weaknesses. But the right planning and partners make all the difference.

boxes on a conveyor belt icon

Surging order volumes

Peak season demand can outpace internal capacity fast. Without the right fulfillment support, brands struggle to scale orders, maintain accuracy, and protect customer success when it matters most.

End to end order visibility

Stockouts & inventory

Poor visibility and misaligned forecasting lead to stockouts, backorders, and missed revenue. Strategic inventory planning is critical to keeping shelves full throughout the rush.

pick pack and ship

Transportation costs

Carrier surcharges and limited capacity make peak season shipping more expensive. Strong carrier relationships and smart routing decisions are essential to keep costs under control.

Peak Season Survey: Retailer Readiness ebook cover

2026 Peak Season Report

As retailers prepare for peak, many are facing the same challenge: growing operational complexity paired with shrinking margin for error.

Our latest industry report surveyed 328 retail and ecommerce leaders to better understand the gaps brands are racing to fix before the holiday season.

Inside, you’ll learn:

  • The top operational risks retailers expect during peak
  • Where fulfillment gaps still exist
  • How brands are approaching inventory, labor, and carrier strategy
  • The technologies and operational changes retailers are prioritizing

Connect with Kase to streamline peak season fulfillment.

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