Peak Season 2026 will be shaped by more than one trend. Early shopping, mobile discovery, AI-assisted search, inventory pressure, shipping costs, delivery promises, 3PL strategy, visibility, automation, and returns are all converging at once. This article is Part 2 of a three-part series drawn from Kase’s Peak Predictions: What’s in Store for 2026 eBook, focused on the peak season predictions retailers should watch before volume spikes.
Peak Season 2026 by the numbers
According to the 328 retail leaders that responded to Kase’s peak season survey:
- 93% expect peak demand to increase
- 79% expect reactive decisions once volume spikes
- 85% are increasing inventory ahead of peak
- 82% expect transportation costs to pressure margins
- 93% say visibility is mission-critical
- 89% say their 3PL strategy is becoming more strategic
Peak season predictions for 2026
The numbers point to a season where growth and pressure are moving together. Retailers expect stronger demand, but they are also preparing for higher transportation costs, inventory imbalance, visibility gaps, and more reactive decision-making once volume spikes. Those pressures set the stage for the peak season trends most likely to define 2026, from earlier shopping behavior and AI-assisted discovery to more disciplined delivery promises, stronger 3PL planning, and returns treated as a second operational peak.
1. Early shopping will be a budget strategy
In 2026, early shopping is likely to be one way shoppers manage tighter budgets.
When consumers are worried about the cost of living, they often spread purchases over a longer window. That allows them to compare prices, wait for discounts, use BNPL, redeem loyalty points, and avoid the financial hit of buying everything in one short period.
Adobe’s 2025 holiday data already showed BNPL’s continued role, with $20 billion in online holiday spending. Deloitte’s 2025 holiday research also found that value-seeking behavior was a major part of seasonal planning, with many shoppers expecting higher prices and looking for promotions.³
Retailers should expect holiday campaigns to begin early again, especially in categories where shoppers compare heavily before purchase. Verticals such as apparel, beauty, toys, electronics, food and beverage, home goods, and wellness products can use early bundles, loyalty access, gift guides, and limited-time offers to pull demand forward.
The operational risk is that early promotions can create uneven demand. A bundle that performs better than expected can drain one component SKU and leave the remaining inventory stranded. A marketplace promotion can pull inventory away from DTC orders, and a viral social post can move demand into a region where inventory is thin.
The fix is better visibility into where inventory sits, how fast it’s moving, and which channels are pulling from the same pool.
KASE INSIGHT: Retailers that pull demand forward through early promotions may reduce last-minute fulfillment pressure, but they also increase the importance of inventory visibility and channel coordination.
2. Omnichannel will be a fulfillment requirement, not a marketing idea
Shoppers today flow between channels. They compare on mobile, research online, visit stores, buy on marketplaces, return in person, and reorder through brand sites.
Capital One Shopping Research reports that 91% of retailers are omnichannel and that omnichannel customers interact with an average of 11 touchpoints. It also projects click-and-collect sales (also called Buy Online, Pick Up In Store or BOPIS) to reach $177.9 billion in 2026, up 15.3% year over year.¹²
That creates opportunity while also raising the operational bar.
A shopper may discover a product on TikTok, compare reviews on Amazon, buy from the brand site, select curbside pickup, and return through a store. If inventory, pricing, delivery promises, and return rules are inconsistent across those moments, the customer experience can break down quickly.
Kase’s survey shows that retail teams are already responding. Ninety-three percent are repositioning inventory closer to demand centers, and 94% say nearshoring or domestic sourcing is important for reducing peak risk.
Omnichannel fulfillment peak readiness depends on operational clarity. Retailers need to know which inventory is available, which channels can access it, where orders should route, how fast each node can ship, and how returns will move back into sellable stock.
3. Mobile and AI-assisted discovery will influence what shoppers find first
Mobile has already become the dominant online holiday shopping channel. Adobe found that mobile accounted for 56.4% of online holiday sales in 2025, the first full year mobile represented more than half of online spend. AI-assisted discovery is also gaining ground: AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew 693.4% year over year during the 2025 holiday season.
Deloitte found that 33% of shoppers planned to use generative AI in the 2025 holiday season, more than double the prior year. McKinsey’s 2026 consumer research found that 19% of consumers use AI tools to discover or decide on brands and products.
This does not mean traditional search, email, marketplaces, influencers, and paid social are losing relevance. It simply means shoppers have more entry points.
Retailers should make sure product data is clean, complete, and consistent across channels. And since AI shopping tools tend to reward clarity, if product data is vague, inconsistent, or missing key details, retailers may lose visibility before the shopper ever reaches the site.
Retailers must ensure:
- Product descriptions answer specific shopper questions
- Gift guides are easy to browse
- Mobile checkout is fast
- Product pages include delivery dates, return policies, bundles, reviews, and size or variant information without forcing shoppers to hunt
4. Inventory precision will matter more than inventory volume
Inventory is a main concern for peak season 2026.
Kase’s survey found that inventory imbalance is the top operational risk heading into peak, cited by 52% of retail logistics leaders. At the same time, 85% are increasing inventory levels ahead of peak, yet 51% cite stockouts as the number one customer experience risk.
That combination says a lot. Retailers are adding stock, but many still worry they will not have the right stock in the right place at the right time.
Blanket inventory increases can reduce one risk while creating another. More inventory can help prevent stockouts, but it can also lead to overstock, higher storage costs, cash-flow pressure, and margin erosion if demand shifts.
Inventory precision requires a more careful approach. Retailers and their logistics partners should:
• Forecast by SKU, channel, promotion, and region
• Place top sellers closer to expected demand
• Separate hero SKUs from long-tail inventory
• Monitor sell-through daily during promotional windows
• Decide which inventory should be protected for retail, marketplace, wholesale, or DTC demand
• Build fast return-to-stock workflows for resellable products
• Use inventory accuracy checks before high-volume campaigns go live, forcing shoppers to hunt.
“Inventory readiness is not just about having enough product. Brands need to know when inbound inventory is arriving, where fast-moving SKUs should be positioned, whether packaging supplies are ready, and how much overflow space may be needed. The goal is to prevent stockouts and inbound congestion before they happen,” said Owen Stauber, Senior Director of Fulfillment Operations at Kase.
KASE INSIGHT: Kase’s survey found that smarter inventory placement is the top margin defense lever, cited by 59% of leaders. That makes inventory placement one of the most important strategic decisions of the season.
5. Fuel and packaging costs will test peak margins
Shipping costs have always mattered during peak. In 2026, the pressure may be sharper because fuel, energy, and packaging inputs are all connected to broader geopolitical and inflation risk.
Kase’s survey found that 82% of retail leaders expect rising transportation and fuel costs to erode margins. 80% say shipping costs significantly influence promotional strategy, and 93% are actively redesigning fulfillment strategies to offset rising costs.
The Strait of Hormuz adds a real planning concern. If oil flows are disrupted, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, and petrochemical-linked packaging inputs can all become more expensive. EIA’s June 2026 outlook projected substantial increases in diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline compared with its pre-conflict outlook. BLS also reported May 2026 increases in gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins, industrial chemicals, and transportation and warehousing services.
Retailers cannot control oil prices. They can control how exposed their peak plan is to fuel and packaging swings.
“The safest assumption is that parcel costs will remain elevated through peak,” said Sean Kim, VP of Parcel and Ecommerce Experience. “Even if oil prices ease, retailers should still plan for demand surcharges to start as early as October and continue into January. The details may not be announced yet, but waiting for final carrier updates is not a peak season strategy.”
Key areas to review include:
- Packaging size and dimensional weight
- Poly mailer, box, tape, dunnage, and label costs
- Split-shipment frequency
- Parcel zone exposure
- Free shipping thresholds
- Expedited shipping promotions
- Rate shopping rules
- Carrier mix
- Regional inventory placement
- Bundled fulfillment options
The goal is not to cut corners on customer experience but to avoid margin leakage that goes unnoticed until after the season ends.
“Even if oil prices ease, retailers should still plan for demand surcharges to start as early as October and continue into January,” said Kim.
6. Delivery promises will get more honest
Fast delivery still matters. That said, peak season 2026 may reward retailers that make accurate promises more than retailers that make the fastest promise.
Kase’s survey found that 38% of retail leaders are adjusting delivery speed expectations somewhat slower or recalibrating customer promises. Customer satisfaction is also the number one post-transformation success metric, cited by 61% of leaders.
The best delivery promise is the one the operation can keep.
Retailers can still use fast shipping strategically. Expedited delivery can be offered on high-margin products, loyalty tiers, specific regions, or inventory held close to demand. But blanket fast-and-free promises can become expensive quickly if fuel, capacity, labor, or carrier performance shifts.
Clear communication will matter more as Christmas approaches. Brands must ensure that delivery cutoffs, order status updates, inventory availability, pickup options, and return windows are visible before the customer places the order.
A slower promise that arrives on time often protects customer trust better than an aggressive promise that misses.
7. 3PL planning will move from execution to strategy
Kase’s survey found that 89% of retail leaders report their 3PL strategy is becoming more strategic and integrated heading into peak season 2026.
Leaders are prioritizing carrier diversification, inventory accuracy, real-time visibility, systems integration, fast onboarding, flexible labor, multi-node fulfillment expertise, returns handling, exception management, and nationwide reach when evaluating 3PL partners.
Those priorities point to a growing need for 3PL partners to be involved before promotions launch, before inventory lands, and before the first peak surge hits.
A 3PL cannot solve a forecasting miss that it never saw coming. It also cannot protect service levels if inventory arrives late or promo plans change without notice.
Brands should bring fulfillment partners into planning conversations around:
- Promotional calendars
- SKU-level forecasts
- Marketplace and retail requirements
- Inventory placement
- Packaging changes
- Carrier strategy
- Delivery promises
- Return policies
- Exception workflows
- Contingency planning
8. Visibility and automation will separate planning from panic
Most retail teams start peak planning early.
Kase’s survey found that 93% of leaders say real-time supply chain visibility is mission-critical or very important for peak season, and 86% are increasing technology investment to support faster decision-making.
The biggest system gaps are inventory accuracy, exception visibility, carrier integration, order-level tracking, and analytics and forecasting.
Automation is also becoming table stakes. Ninety-six percent of survey respondents are using automation to manage peak complexity, including order routing, inventory allocation, carrier selection, labor planning, returns, and exception handling.
Technology supports operations by giving brands and logistics teams faster ways to see problems and act.
Retailers should know before peak:
- Which dashboards will be used daily
- Which alerts require immediate action
- Who owns inventory exceptions
- Who owns carrier exceptions
- How customer service will see order status
- When to activate backup carriers
- When to shift inventory or adjust delivery promises
- How returns will be prioritized after Christmas
Kase’s survey found that 79% of leaders still expect reactive decisions once volume spikes. That means planning alone is not enough. Retailers need a 48-hour disruption response plan that can be activated quickly when demand, inventory, carriers, or systems move off plan.
KASE INSIGHT: The difference between a manageable peak disruption and a major operational issue is often how quickly teams identify and respond to exceptions.
9. Returns need to be planned as a second peak
Peak does not end when the holiday shipping window closes, because returns begin immediately after gifting and can create a second operational surge.
Kase’s survey found that returns overload is one of the top operational risks heading into peak, cited by 32% of leaders. It also found that 41% are already automating returns workflows.
Return planning should happen before peak. A slow refund, unclear policy, poor exchange experience, or delayed restock can turn a successful sale into a customer service problem.
Retailers should decide:
- Which products are eligible for returns, exchanges, or store credit
- Which items can be returned to stock
- Which items require inspection, refurbishment, disposal, or vendor return
- How quickly refunds or credits will be issued
- How exchanges will be encouraged
- Whether return fees or consumer-paid returns will apply
- How customer service will communicate return status
Returns also affect inventory. A returned item that sits unprocessed for two weeks cannot be resold during a seasonal window. Fast return-to-stock workflows can help protect margin, especially for apparel, beauty, footwear, home goods, and giftable products with longer post-holiday demand.
What retailers should do now:
- Finalize return policies
- Define return-to-stock SLAs
- Plan labor for post-holiday processing
- Align customer service messaging
The common thread across every prediction
Peak Season 2026 is not defined by complexity.
The organizations most likely to succeed will not necessarily be the ones with the most inventory, the fastest shipping, or the largest budgets. They will be the ones who can see issues early, adapt quickly, and execute consistently across channels.
The predictions point to the same reality: Peak Season 2026 will reward retailers that can plan early, act quickly, and connect every fulfillment decision back to customer experience and margin. For the full 2026 peak season outlook, download the full Peak Predictions: What’s in Store for 2026 eBook.
