Retail and ecommerce leaders are heading into peak season 2026 with confidence. However, many are also preparing for a more challenging operating environment marked by inventory risk, transportation pressures, and the need for faster decision-making as order volume rises during this year’s key holiday shopping period.
A new Kase industry survey, Peak Season Retailer Sentiment: Operational Gaps Brands Are Racing to Fix, found that 93% of retail and ecommerce fulfillment leaders expect peak season demand to increase in 2026. Despite that anticipated growth, only 61% said they are very confident in their organization’s ability to meet demand effectively.
Beneath that optimism, however, retailers are navigating a more volatile operating environment. The survey found that 76% of respondents said macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences their peak season outlook, while 79% said they are likely or very likely to be forced into reactive decisions once peak volume spikes.
Confidence is high, but readiness is still being tested
Kase’s findings point to a retail logistics market that is not short on planning, with 96% of respondents saying they started preparing for peak season earlier this year. Yet despite those efforts, many organizations still expect disruptions once volume surges, highlighting the growing complexity of peak season execution.
“Successful peak seasons are built through early planning, strong communication, and shared accountability between a 3PL and its client,” said Mike Venditti, Vice President of Fulfillment Operations at Kase. “The goal is to align demand, labor, inventory, systems, and transportation before volume surges occur.”
That level of coordination is becoming increasingly difficult. While retailers have invested in technology, expanded visibility, and strengthened contingency plans, the survey found that 78% consider their supply chains moderately or highly vulnerable to disruption despite those resilience efforts.
Retailers can no longer plan solely for higher order volume. They must also plan around cost increases, customer delivery expectations, carrier capacity, labor availability, and the risk of inventory being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Inventory risk remains high
Inventory remains one of the clearest pressure points. According to the Kase survey, inventory imbalance ranked as the top operational risk heading into peak season, cited by 52% of respondents. At the same time, 85% said they are increasing inventory levels ahead of peak, while 51% identified stockouts as the top customer experience risk.
Although retailers are building buffers, the survey suggests that simply holding more inventory is not enough. Instead, smarter inventory placement is the leading margin defense strategy, cited by 59% of respondents. With transportation costs remaining elevated, inventory positioned in the wrong fulfillment node can lead to longer transit distances, higher shipping expenses, and slower delivery performance when demand spikes.
As a result, many retailers are taking a closer look at where inventory is stored, which SKUs are most likely to move during peak, and how inbound inventory will flow through their networks before the season begins.
“Inventory readiness is not just about having enough product,” Venditti said. “Brands need to know when inbound inventory is arriving, where fast-moving SKUs should be positioned, whether packaging supplies are ready, and how much overflow space may be needed. The goal is to prevent stockouts and inbound congestion before they happen.”
Forecasting needs to keep moving
Forecasting is closely tied to inventory challenges. Demand planning has become more than an annual peak season exercise. Retailers need rolling forecasts that account for promotional calendars, new product launches, changes in SKU velocity, and best- and worst-case scenarios.
When forecasts are updated too slowly, fulfillment teams can end up reacting after labor, warehouse capacity, inventory, or carrier needs have already shifted. During peak season, even small forecasting gaps can lead to stockouts, excess inventory, higher shipping costs, and service disruptions.
Carrier capacity is still a peak season wildcard
Beyond the warehouse, there’s also broad concern about transportation and carrier capacity. Retailers may be able to control 3PL readiness, inventory planning, and system testing, but outbound capacity still depends on carrier performance within a compressed shipping window.
That concern is widespread. The survey found that 81% of retail leaders are concerned about carrier capacity and transportation disruptions heading into peak, making carrier planning a major part of peak season preparation.
Brands are expected to coordinate parcel, LTL, and truckload capacity earlier and to validate holiday schedules, routing requirements, and regional carrier options. The survey found that carrier diversification is one of the top capabilities retailers now look for in a 3PL partner, reflecting how transportation risk can significantly affect the customer experience during peak periods.
“Carrier planning has to happen before peak begins,” Venditti said. “It is not enough to know who the backup carriers are. Brands and 3PLs must confirm capacity, understand regional alternatives, and make sure routing rules are clear before the network is under pressure.”
Brands need more from their 3PLs
The findings also show that 3PL relationships are becoming more strategic. Retailers are looking for fulfillment partners that can help with forecasting, labor planning, inventory placement, technology alignment, transportation planning, and daily operating cadence once peak volume arrives.
A 3PL relationship built around storage and order fulfillment may not be enough when brands need faster visibility, flexible labor, stronger carrier options, and more disciplined communication.
Retailers require a partnership that can hold up when demand rises and exceptions begin to stack.
Additionally, the survey indicates that many retailers are actively redesigning their fulfillment strategies to offset rising costs. Transportation, fuel, labor, and promotional pressure are evolving how brands think about delivery promises and customer expectations. Rather than treating faster delivery as the only goal, more retailers are trying to set promises they can consistently meet.
Visibility matters when problems move fast
Problems tend to appear quickly during peak season: A delayed inbound shipment can affect inventory accuracy. A system issue can slow order flow. A carrier delay can turn into a customer service problem. Labor shortages can create a backlog that takes days to recover.
The more connected the operation is, the faster teams can identify changes and decide what to do next. Technology is a critical part of the response, although not a cure on its own.
The survey shows that real-time visibility and faster decision-making are becoming core components of peak season execution. 93% of respondents said real-time supply chain visibility is mission-critical or very important for peak season execution, and 86% said they are increasing investment in technologies that enable faster decision-making.
The investment centers on automation and systems, but the practical test is whether those tools help teams clearly see inventory, order status, carrier performance, backlog, and exceptions so they can act.
“Systems and technology readiness should be validated before volume increases,” Venditti said. “That includes WMS and order integration testing, EDI and API stability, device readiness, backup processes, and clear escalation contacts. The worst time to discover a system weakness is during peak.”
Labor and communication plans need clear ownership
Labor planning is another key factor. Even when demand forecasts are strong, fulfillment teams need enough trained workers to absorb the increase. Before peak pressure builds, seasonal hiring, cross-training, overtime expectations, weekend schedules, and productivity targets all need to be settled. Otherwise, labor becomes another reactive decision.
Retailers and 3PLs are also placing more emphasis on governance. Weekly meetings before peak and daily operating reviews during peak can help keep teams aligned. Dashboards that show order volume, backlog, labor utilization, inventory accuracy, and on-time performance give leaders a clearer view of where the network is holding and where it may need support.
The strongest peak season plans typically cover eight areas: Forecasting, inventory readiness, labor planning, operational capacity, systems testing, carrier planning, communication cadence, and contingency planning.
Contingency plans have to be actionable
Contingency planning may be the area where confidence and reality differ most. The survey found that 82% of respondents described their contingency plans as robust or very robust, yet many still expect to make reactive decisions during peak.
Retailers can have backup plans in place, but those plans need to be documented, assigned, and tested. Demand surges, labor shortages, carrier delays, weather events, and system outages all require clear recovery paths. When ownership is unclear, response time slows.
Confidence sets the tone, execution decides the outcome
The Kase survey suggests peak season 2026 will reward retailers that move from general preparation to operational validation. Leaders are optimistic, but they are also facing a more complicated fulfillment environment. Demand is expected to rise, costs remain under pressure, and customer expectations have not disappeared.
The retailers best positioned for peak will likely be those that pressure-test the basics before volume hits. Confidence may set the tone heading into peak season, but execution will determine the outcome.
